Search Results for: Tetlock

Philip Tetlock: Ten Commandments for Aspiring Superforecasters

December 21, 2015

The Knowledge Project interview with Philip Tetlock deconstructs our ability to make accurate predictions into specific components. He learned through his work on The Good Judgment Project. In Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, Tetlock and Dan Gardner (his co-author), set out to distill the ten key themes that have been “experimentally demonstrated to […]

Philip Tetlock on The Art and Science of Prediction

December 09, 2015

This is the sixth episode of The Knowledge Project, a podcast aimed at acquiring wisdom through interviews with fascinating people to gain insights into how they think, live, and connect ideas. *** On this episode, I’m happy to have Philip Tetlock, professor at the University of Pennsylvania. He’s the co-leader of The Good Judgement Project, […]

The Generalized Specialist: How Shakespeare, Da Vinci, and Kepler Excelled

November 14, 2017

“What do you want to be when you grow up?” Do you ever ask kids this question? Did adults ask you this when you were a kid? Even if you managed to escape this question until high school, then by the time you got there, you were probably expected to be able to answer this […]

Confirmation Bias: Why You Should Seek Out Disconfirming Evidence

May 24, 2017

The Basics Confirmation bias is our tendency to cherry-pick information that confirms our existing beliefs or ideas. This is also known as myside bias or confirmatory bias. Two people with opposing views on a topic can see the same evidence and come away feeling validated by it. Confirmation bias is pronounced in the case of […]

The Best Books of 2016 According to You

December 11, 2016

On Twitter in late November we asked Farnam Street readers What Was The Best Book You Read in 2016? Turns out you are all a well read bunch: almost 90 books came up in the discussion and many of them brand new to us. Below are the most frequently mentioned books on the list, followed by a few dozen […]

Gradually Getting Closer to the Truth

September 15, 2016

You can use a big idea without a physics-like need for exact precision. The key to remember is moving closer to reality by updating. Consider this excerpt from Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner in Superforecasting The superforecasters are a numerate bunch: many know about Bayes’ theorem and could deploy it if they felt it was […]